Lin-Qian Global Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast

Disclaimer: This website is for research purpose only. Our products should not be used for any commercial purpose, and we assume no responsibility for their use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones. Concerned individuals or organizations should consult the official forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regional specialized meteorological centers (RSMC) for different regions (see the following map):

For North Atlantic and Eastern/Central Pacific: RSMC Miami (U.S. National Hurricane Center) RSMC Honolulu (U.S. Central Pacific Hurricane Center)

For Other regions: U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Forecast China Meteorological Administration RSMC Tokyo RSMC New Delhi RSMC La Reunion RSMC Melbourne RSMC Nadi RSMC Wellington

Non-official forecasts: NCAR MIT

Lin-Qian Real-Time Global Dynamical Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The Most Extreme Tropical Cyclones 1979-2017

Name	Year	Death Toll	Damage (US$)	Peak Wind (mph)	Note
Deadliest
Cyclone 02B	1991	138,866	$1.7 Billion	145
Cyclone Nargis	2008	138,366	$13 Billion	134
Hurricane Mitch	1998	11,374	$6 Billion	180
Super Typhoon Haiyan	2013	6,329	$4.5 Billion	145
Hurricane Maria	2017	4,645	$91 Billion	175
Hurricane Katrina	2005	1,833	$125 Billion	175
Costliest
Hurricane Harvey	2017	107	$125 Billion	130
Hurricane Sandy	2012	233	$68 Billion	115
Hurricane Irma	2017	134	$64 Billion	180
Hurricane Ike	2008	214	$38 Billion	145
Hurricane Wilma	2005	87	$27 Billion	185
Hurricane Frances	2004	50	$10 Billion	145
Strongest
Hurricane Patricia	2015	13	$0.5 Billion	215
Super Typhoon Tip	1979	99	Unknown	190
Hurricane Allen	1980	269	$1.5 Billion	190
Hurricane Gilbert	1988	318	$3 Billion	185

For tropical cyclone damage, a good reference number is the annual GDP growth of United States, which is $30 Billion in 2016 (1.6% growth). This means that a major hurricane could cost more than the annual GDP growth of U.S..

One of the Most Difficult Questions for Weather Prediction – The Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Right now, “extreme events are almost never forecast” (See presentation by Daniel Brown, U.S. National Hurricane Center)

Verification of NHC Official Forecasts for Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (1989-2017)

(Data from NHC Forecast Verification Archive)

Verification of All Existing Tropical Cyclone Models Around the World (2011-2017)

(Data from NCAR Tropical Cyclone Project Archive)

Example for Hurricane Patricia (from Daniel Brown’s presentation)

Forecast Skill of the Lin-Qian Toy Tropical Cyclone Model (LQTTCM)

For All Tropical Cyclones Around the World 1979-2015 (Skill Similar for Each Individual Regions)

Examples of Our Prediction for the Most Extreme (Deadliest/Costliest/Strongest) Tropical Cyclones