Inflation Forecasts and Raw data from "Optimal Univariate Inflation Forecasting with Symmetric Stable Shocks" by Prasad V. Bidarkota and J. Huston McCulloch, dated Feb. 1997. Note that this version uses an ARCH(1)-stable model, rather than the state-contingent heteroskedasticity modeled in an earlier version. 2/04/97 This file contains 6 data groups. 1. The monthly CPI-U series taken from BLS publications. The series runs from 1950:1 through 1994:12. The first column indicates the year. 2. The monthly CPI-X series. The series runs from 1967:1 through 1982:12. The first column indicates the year. 3. The monthly CPI-UX series that we construct using the monthly CPI-U and CPI-X from (1) and (2) above. The series runs from 1950:1 through 1994:12. 4. Raw inflation rates constructed as first differences of natural logarithms of the constructed CPI-UX series from (3) above and as described in Appendix III. Rates are annualized percentages. They run from 1953:11 (Oct-Nov inflation) to 1993:9 (Aug-Sep inflation). 5. Seasonally adjusted monthly inflation rates constructed from (4) above. The seasonal adjustment procedure is described in Appendix III. Rates are annualized percentages. The series runs from 1953:11 (Oct-Nov inflation) to 1993:9 (Aug-Sep inflation). 6. Stable Filter Inflation Forecasts Forecasts: y-hat_t = E( x_t | Y_t ) = E( y_(t+j) | Y_t ) (Annual percentage rates) 1. CPI-U series, for Jan - Dec, 1950 - 1994. Base year= 1967 50 70.5 70.3 70.6 70.7 71.0 71.4 72.1 72.7 73.2 73.6 73.9 74.9 51 76.1 77.0 77.3 77.4 77.7 77.6 77.7 77.7 78.2 78.6 79.0 79.3 52 79.3 78.8 78.8 79.1 79.2 79.4 80.0 80.1 80.0 80.1 80.1 80.0 53 79.8 79.4 79.6 79.7 79.9 80.2 80.4 80.6 80.7 80.9 80.6 80.5 54 80.7 80.6 80.5 80.3 80.6 80.7 80.7 80.6 80.4 80.2 80.3 80.1 55 80.1 80.1 80.1 80.1 80.1 80.1 80.4 80.2 80.5 80.5 80.6 80.4 56 80.3 80.3 80.4 80.5 80.9 81.4 82.0 81.9 82.0 82.5 82.5 82.7 57 82.8 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.3 84.7 84.8 84.9 84.9 85.2 85.2 58 85.7 85.8 86.4 86.6 86.6 86.7 86.8 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.8 86.7 59 86.8 86.7 86.7 86.8 86.9 87.3 87.5 87.4 87.7 88.0 88.0 88.0 60 87.9 88.0 88.0 88.5 88.5 88.7 88.7 88.7 88.8 89.2 89.3 89.3 61 89.3 89.3 89.3 89.3 89.3 89.4 89.8 89.7 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 62 89.9 90.1 90.3 90.5 90.5 90.5 90.7 90.7 91.2 91.1 91.1 91.0 63 91.1 91.2 91.3 91.3 91.3 91.7 92.1 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.3 92.5 64 92.6 92.5 92.6 92.7 92.7 92.9 93.1 93.0 93.2 93.3 93.5 93.6 65 93.6 93.6 93.7 94.0 94.2 94.7 94.8 94.6 94.8 94.9 95.1 95.4 66 95.4 96.0 96.3 96.7 96.8 97.1 97.4 97.9 98.1 98.5 98.5 98.6 67 98.6 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.4 99.7 100.2 100.5 100.7 101.0 101.3 101.6 68 102.0 102.3 102.8 103.1 103.4 104.0 104.5 104.8 105.1 105.7 106.1 106.4 69 106.7 107.1 108.0 108.7 109.0 109.7 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.2 112.9 70 113.3 113.9 114.5 115.2 115.7 116.3 116.7 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.5 119.1 71 119.2 119.4 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 122.1 122.2 122.4 122.6 123.1 72 123.2 123.8 124.0 124.3 124.7 125.0 125.5 125.7 126.2 126.6 126.9 127.3 73 127.7 128.6 129.8 130.7 131.5 132.4 132.7 135.1 135.5 136.6 137.6 138.5 74 139.7 141.5 143.1 143.9 145.5 146.9 148.0 149.9 151.7 153.0 154.3 155.4 75 156.1 157.2 157.8 158.6 159.3 160.6 162.3 162.8 163.6 164.6 165.6 166.3 76 166.7 167.1 167.5 168.2 169.2 170.1 171.1 171.9 172.6 173.3 173.8 174.3 77 175.3 177.1 178.2 179.6 180.6 181.8 182.6 183.3 184.0 184.5 185.4 186.1 78 187.2 188.4 189.8 191.5 193.3 195.3 196.7 197.8 199.3 200.9 202.0 202.9 79 204.7 207.1 209.1 211.5 214.1 216.6 218.9 221.1 223.4 225.4 227.5 229.9 80 233.2 236.4 239.8 242.5 244.9 247.6 247.8 249.4 251.7 253.9 256.2 258.4 81 260.5 263.2 265.1 266.8 269.0 271.3 274.4 276.5 279.3 279.9 280.7 281.5 82 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294.1 293.6 292.4 83 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 84 305.2 306.6 307.3 308.8 309.7 310.7 311.7 313.0 314.5 315.3 315.3 315.5 85 316.1 317.4 318.8 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 86 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 87 331.1 334.4 335.9 337.7 338.7 340.1 340.8 342.7 344.4 345.3 345.8 345.7 88 346.7 347.4 349.0 350.8 352.0 353.5 354.9 356.6 358.9 360.1 360.5 360.9 89 362.7 364.1 366.2 368.8 370.8 371.7 372.7 373.1 374.6 376.2 377.0 377.6 90 381.5 383.3 385.5 386.2 386.9 389.1 390.7 394.1 397.5 400.0 400.7 400.9 91 403.1 403.8 404.3 405.1 406.3 407.3 408.0 409.2 411.1 411.5 412.7 413.0 92 413.8 415.2 417.2 417.9 418.6 419.9 420.8 422.0 423.2 424.7 425.3 425.2 93 427.0 428.7 430.1 431.2 432.0 432.4 432.6 433.9 434.7 436.4 436.9 436.8 94 437.8 439.3 441.1 441.4 441.9 443.3 444.4 446.4 447.5 448.0 448.6 448.4 2. CPI-X series. 67 98.7 98.8 99.0 99.2 99.5 99.8 100.2 100.4 100.7 101.0 101.2 101.5 68 101.9 102.2 102.6 102.9 103.3 103.6 103.9 104.2 104.5 105.0 105.3 105.5 69 105.8 106.2 106.8 107.3 107.6 108.3 108.6 109.0 109.4 109.8 110.3 111.0 70 111.2 111.7 112.0 112.7 113.1 113.4 113.9 114.1 114.5 115.1 115.5 116.0 71 116.2 116.7 117.2 117.8 118.3 118.9 119.2 119.3 119.4 119.6 119.7 120.1 72 120.2 120.8 121.1 121.4 121.7 122.0 122.3 122.6 123.1 123.4 123.8 124.1 73 124.7 125.6 126.8 127.8 128.5 129.3 129.7 131.8 132.0 132.8 133.7 134.6 74 135.7 137.5 138.9 139.7 141.1 142.3 143.2 144.8 146.3 147.4 148.6 149.5 75 150.1 150.9 151.5 152.1 152.8 154.0 155.6 156.2 156.9 157.8 158.6 159.3 76 159.7 160.2 160.7 161.4 162.3 163.3 164.1 164.8 165.5 166.2 166.7 167.4 77 168.3 170.0 170.9 172.2 173.1 174.2 174.8 175.5 175.9 176.5 177.3 177.9 78 178.8 179.9 181.2 182.7 184.3 186.0 186.9 187.7 188.8 190.0 191.0 192.0 79 193.6 195.4 197.1 199.0 201.3 203.3 205.0 206.6 208.4 210.0 211.1 212.8 80 215.3 218.0 220.7 222.3 224.2 225.8 227.2 229.1 231.4 232.8 234.2 235.7 81 237.8 240.8 242.8 244.2 245.7 247.1 249.0 250.8 252.8 253.9 254.9 255.8 82 257.2 258.0 258.4 258.8 260.6 263.2 265.0 265.5 266.8 268.0 268.4 268.6 3. The CPI-UX series that we construct, 1950:1 - 1994:12. 70.500000 70.300000 70.600000 70.700000 71.000000 71.400000 72.100000 72.700000 73.200000 73.600000 73.900000 74.900000 76.100000 77.000000 77.300000 77.400000 77.700000 77.600000 77.700000 77.700000 78.200000 78.600000 79.000000 79.300000 79.300000 78.800000 78.800000 79.100000 79.200000 79.400000 80.000000 80.100000 80.000000 80.100000 80.100000 80.000000 79.800000 79.400000 79.600000 79.700000 79.900000 80.200000 80.400000 80.600000 80.700000 80.900000 80.600000 80.500000 80.700000 80.600000 80.500000 80.300000 80.600000 80.700000 80.700000 80.600000 80.400000 80.200000 80.300000 80.100000 80.100000 80.100000 80.100000 80.100000 80.100000 80.100000 80.400000 80.200000 80.500000 80.500000 80.600000 80.400000 80.300000 80.300000 80.400000 80.500000 80.900000 81.400000 82.000000 81.900000 82.000000 82.500000 82.500000 82.700000 82.800000 83.100000 83.300000 83.600000 83.800000 84.300000 84.700000 84.800000 84.900000 84.900000 85.200000 85.200000 85.700000 85.800000 86.400000 86.600000 86.600000 86.700000 86.800000 86.700000 86.700000 86.700000 86.800000 86.700000 86.800000 86.700000 86.700000 86.800000 86.900000 87.300000 87.500000 87.400000 87.700000 88.000000 88.000000 88.000000 87.900000 88.000000 88.000000 88.500000 88.500000 88.700000 88.700000 88.700000 88.800000 89.200000 89.300000 89.300000 89.300000 89.300000 89.300000 89.300000 89.300000 89.400000 89.800000 89.700000 89.900000 89.900000 89.900000 89.900000 89.900000 90.100000 90.300000 90.500000 90.500000 90.500000 90.700000 90.700000 91.200000 91.100000 91.100000 91.000000 91.100000 91.200000 91.300000 91.300000 91.300000 91.700000 92.100000 92.100000 92.100000 92.200000 92.300000 92.500000 92.600000 92.500000 92.600000 92.700000 92.700000 92.900000 93.100000 93.000000 93.200000 93.300000 93.500000 93.600000 93.600000 93.600000 93.700000 94.000000 94.200000 94.700000 94.800000 94.600000 94.800000 94.900000 95.100000 95.400000 95.400000 96.000000 96.300000 96.700000 96.800000 97.100000 97.400000 97.900000 98.100000 98.500000 98.500000 98.600000 98.600000 98.700000 98.900000 99.100000 99.400000 99.700000 100.20000 100.40000 100.70000 101.00000 101.20000 101.50000 101.90000 102.20000 102.60000 102.90000 103.30000 103.60000 103.90000 104.20000 104.50000 105.00000 105.30000 105.50000 105.80000 106.20000 106.80000 107.30000 107.60000 108.30000 108.60000 109.00000 109.40000 109.80000 110.30000 111.00000 111.20000 111.70000 112.00000 112.70000 113.10000 113.40000 113.90000 114.10000 114.50000 115.10000 115.50000 116.00000 116.20000 116.70000 117.20000 117.80000 118.30000 118.90000 119.20000 119.30000 119.40000 119.60000 119.70000 120.10000 120.20000 120.80000 121.10000 121.40000 121.70000 122.00000 122.30000 122.60000 123.10000 123.40000 123.80000 124.10000 124.70000 125.60000 126.80000 127.80000 128.50000 129.30000 129.70000 131.80000 132.00000 132.80000 133.70000 134.60000 135.70000 137.50000 138.90000 139.70000 141.10000 142.30000 143.20000 144.80000 146.30000 147.40000 148.60000 149.50000 150.10000 150.90000 151.50000 152.10000 152.80000 154.00000 155.60000 156.20000 156.90000 157.80000 158.60000 159.30000 159.70000 160.20000 160.70000 161.40000 162.30000 163.30000 164.10000 164.80000 165.50000 166.20000 166.70000 167.40000 168.30000 170.00000 170.90000 172.20000 173.10000 174.20000 174.80000 175.50000 175.90000 176.50000 177.30000 177.90000 178.80000 179.90000 181.20000 182.70000 184.30000 186.00000 186.90000 187.70000 188.80000 190.00000 191.00000 192.00000 193.60000 195.40000 197.10000 199.00000 201.30000 203.30000 205.00000 206.60000 208.40000 210.00000 211.10000 212.80000 215.30000 218.00000 220.70000 222.30000 224.20000 225.80000 227.20000 229.10000 231.40000 232.80000 234.20000 235.70000 237.80000 240.80000 242.80000 244.20000 245.70000 247.10000 249.00000 250.80000 252.80000 253.90000 254.90000 255.80000 257.20000 258.00000 258.40000 258.80000 260.60000 263.20000 265.00000 265.50000 266.80000 268.00000 268.40000 268.60000 269.24302 269.33488 269.51860 271.44767 272.91744 273.83605 274.93837 275.85698 277.23488 277.96977 278.42907 278.79651 280.35814 281.64419 282.28721 283.66512 284.49186 285.41047 286.32907 287.52326 288.90116 289.63605 289.63605 289.81977 290.37093 291.56512 292.85116 294.04535 295.14767 296.06628 296.52558 297.16860 298.08721 299.00581 300.01628 300.75116 301.66977 300.84302 299.46512 298.82209 299.74070 301.21047 301.30233 301.85349 303.32326 303.59884 303.87442 304.15000 304.15000 307.18140 308.55930 310.21279 311.13140 312.41744 313.06047 314.80581 316.36744 317.19419 317.65349 317.56163 318.48023 319.12326 320.59302 322.24651 323.34884 324.72674 326.01279 327.57442 329.68721 330.78953 331.15698 331.52442 333.17791 334.46395 336.39302 338.78140 340.61860 341.44535 342.36395 342.73140 344.10930 345.57907 346.31395 346.86512 350.44767 352.10116 354.12209 354.76512 355.40814 357.42907 358.89884 362.02209 365.14535 367.44186 368.08488 368.26860 370.28953 370.93256 371.39186 372.12674 373.22907 374.14767 374.79070 375.89302 377.63837 378.00581 379.10814 379.38372 380.11860 381.40465 383.24186 383.88488 384.52791 385.72209 386.54884 387.65116 388.75349 390.13140 390.68256 390.59070 392.24419 393.80581 395.09186 396.10233 396.83721 397.20465 397.38837 398.58256 399.31744 400.87907 401.33837 401.24651 402.16512 403.54302 405.19651 405.47209 405.93140 407.21744 408.22791 410.06512 411.07558 411.53488 412.08605 411.90233 4. Raw inflation rates constructed as first differences of natural logarithms of the constructed CPI-UX series as described in Appendix III. Rates are annualized percentages. They run from 1953:11 (Oct-Nov inflation) to 1993:9 (Aug-Sep inflation). -4.4582095 -1.4897581 2.9776690 -1.4879109 -1.4897581 -2.9850762 4.4748343 1.4879109 0.0000000 -1.4879109 -2.9813680 -2.9887936 1.4953273 -2.9925203 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 4.4859865 -2.9887936 4.4804035 0.0000000 1.4897581 -2.9813680 -1.4934663 0.0000000 1.4934663 1.4916099 5.9479676 7.3937387 8.8127691 -1.4643077 1.4643077 7.2948553 0.0000000 2.9055704 1.4501512 4.3399686 2.8846168 4.3139651 2.8673849 7.1386290 5.6804840 1.4159294 1.4142606 0.0000000 4.2328086 0.0000000 7.0216701 1.3994171 8.3624032 2.7745677 0.0000000 1.3848819 1.3832855 -1.3832855 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.3832855 -1.3832855 1.3832855 -1.3832855 0.0000000 1.3832855 1.3816927 5.5109167 2.7459966 -1.3722128 4.1119401 4.0978981 0.0000000 0.0000000 -1.3644117 1.3644117 0.0000000 6.7988850 0.0000000 2.7088048 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.3521128 5.3932675 1.3445380 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.3430332 5.3571518 -1.3370475 2.6726069 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 2.6666678 2.6607550 2.6548683 0.0000000 0.0000000 2.6490077 0.0000000 6.5970480 -1.3165114 0.0000000 -1.3179573 1.3179573 1.3165114 1.3150686 0.0000000 0.0000000 5.2459100 5.2230768 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.3022248 1.3008131 2.5974036 1.2965966 -1.2965966 1.2965966 1.2951971 0.0000000 2.5862079 2.5806462 -1.2896294 2.5778742 1.2868634 2.5695941 1.2827366 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.2813669 3.8359116 2.5504792 6.3525823 1.2664909 -2.5343198 2.5343198 1.2651556 2.5263167 3.7795307 0.0000000 7.5235356 3.7441528 4.9741004 1.2403102 3.7132572 3.7018024 6.1444067 2.4489804 4.8830179 0.0000000 1.2176561 0.0000000 1.2164218 2.4291506 2.4242432 3.6272068 3.6162760 6.0030140 2.3928223 3.5803110 3.5696605 2.3738880 3.5520500 4.7197701 3.5276850 4.6875060 3.5036521 4.6556799 3.4799444 3.4698819 3.4598775 3.4499305 5.7279345 3.4236828 2.2770405 3.4074798 4.5283073 6.7605813 5.6048677 3.3503977 7.7814075 3.3195042 4.4117697 4.3956093 4.3795669 5.4520766 7.5915301 2.1602166 5.3835891 3.2185983 7.4766597 4.2515545 3.1788098 5.2793750 2.1052637 4.1994794 6.2717913 4.1630571 5.1835934 2.0671840 5.1524338 5.1304054 6.1276729 5.0825997 6.0708393 3.0239411 1.0062894 1.0054462 2.0083687 1.0029253 4.0033398 0.99875162 5.9751161 2.9764381 2.9690737 2.9617456 2.9544537 2.9471976 2.9399770 4.8840116 2.9208939 3.8834985 2.9043984 5.7877926 8.6296816 11.410546 9.4265999 6.5548349 7.4476577 3.7065667 19.273837 1.8195606 7.2507773 8.1050965 8.0507197 9.7669796 15.812820 12.156399 6.8916198 11.965911 10.162375 7.5656993 13.333471 12.366994 8.9888061 9.7297830 7.2459127 4.8064150 6.3787526 4.7619110 4.7430892 5.5100130 9.3872708 12.403211 4.6183508 5.3657068 6.8636984 6.0682809 5.2846893 3.0094060 3.7511753 3.7394857 5.2157797 6.6728624 7.3710305 5.8643977 5.1079433 5.0862928 5.0648251 3.6046888 5.0284420 6.4343318 12.060403 6.3361837 9.0936022 6.2554442 7.6015227 4.1260786 4.7958956 2.7319306 4.0862696 5.4268040 4.0540579 6.0555217 7.3599339 8.6403032 9.8928837 10.463282 11.018171 5.7924489 5.1254750 7.0119721 7.6029821 6.2992271 6.2663328 9.9585634 11.105478 10.394969 11.512333 13.789810 11.863666 9.9927102 9.3294931 10.409704 9.1778650 6.2693090 9.6249631 14.015576 14.955190 14.771101 8.6682092 10.212828 8.5333693 7.4172422 9.9934831 11.987070 7.2382813 7.1948824 7.6612305 10.644209 15.044075 9.9256149 6.8994030 7.3484614 6.8182002 9.1917402 8.6434948 9.5314242 5.2101917 4.7169872 4.2294933 6.5497239 3.7267111 1.8590244 1.8561489 8.3173225 11.913042 8.1787518 2.2620176 5.8613680 5.3851998 1.7897095 0.89385479 2.8693438 0.40934675 0.81827484 8.5583654 6.4799347 4.0322619 4.8208970 4.0026722 5.9790856 3.1767060 1.9811793 1.5825917 6.7028267 5.4920004 2.7366032 5.8432188 3.4923226 3.8684753 3.8560444 4.9944045 5.7370627 3.0485885 0.0000000 0.76093852 2.2799247 4.9250266 5.2813666 4.8834001 4.4901830 3.7290272 1.8601771 2.5994131 3.7037066 3.6923106 4.0484627 2.9357813 3.6596552 -3.2931870 -5.5088085 -2.5794575 3.6832441 5.8697763 0.36590944 2.1931167 5.8287911 1.0897534 1.0887646 1.0877777 0.0000000 11.900924 5.3707385 6.4133169 3.5481989 4.9499186 2.4673235 6.6715607 5.9380124 3.1317982 1.7363626 -0.34707159 3.4662069 2.4204013 5.5140821 6.1732060 4.0978981 5.1027717 4.7430892 5.7343749 7.7149113 4.0055670 1.3322233 1.3307459 5.9701616 4.6230107 6.9012925 8.4898313 6.4900104 2.9090923 3.2240750 1.2872085 4.8147717 5.1145522 2.5491247 1.9082962 12.330500 5.6485460 6.8678647 2.1770124 2.1730701 6.8041419 4.9243465 10.397619 10.308300 7.5235356 2.0981646 0.59880241 6.5671806 2.0820429 1.4849649 2.3721283 3.5494233 2.9498540 2.0605917 3.5242316 5.5589518 1.1670315 3.4943000 0.87198744 2.3222068 4.0530798 5.7664695 2.0117356 2.0083687 3.7209332 2.5692885 3.4171831 3.4074798 4.2457881 1.6941179 -0.28218695 5.0692401 4.7680325 3.9124394 3.0651358 2.2242824 1.1105970 0.55491330 3.6006951 2.2104542 5. Seasonally adjusted inflation rates based on the constructed CPI-UX, as described in Appendix III. Rates are annualized percentages. The series runs from 1953:11 (Oct-Nov inflation) to 1993:9 (Aug-Sep inflation). -3.2822067 0.080351900 3.0969718 -2.0603427 -1.7520260 -3.3982491 4.1804609 0.26531900 -0.32898962 -0.99442828 -3.4971182 -2.7381140 2.6713301 -1.4224103 0.11930279 -0.57243183 -0.26226793 -0.41317290 -0.29437338 -1.2225919 4.1569969 -2.4953110 3.9646533 0.25067956 2.6657609 -1.4112580 -1.3741635 -0.57243183 1.2311984 1.0784370 5.6535942 6.1711468 8.4837795 -0.97082508 0.94855749 7.5455349 1.1760028 4.4756804 1.5694540 3.7675368 2.6223489 3.9007922 2.5730115 5.9160371 5.3514944 1.9094120 0.89851039 0.25067956 5.4088114 1.5701100 7.1409729 0.82698527 8.1001353 2.3613948 -0.29437338 0.16229000 1.0542959 -0.88980288 -0.51575021 0.25067956 2.5592883 0.18682450 1.5025883 -1.9557173 -0.26226793 0.97011260 1.0873193 4.2883248 2.4170070 -0.87873018 3.5961899 4.3485777 1.1760028 1.5701100 -1.2451089 0.79197987 -0.26226793 6.3857121 -0.29437338 1.4862129 -0.32898962 0.49348262 0.83636259 5.6439471 2.5205408 1.5701100 0.11930279 -0.57243183 -0.26226793 -0.41317290 -0.29437338 0.12044130 5.0281622 -0.84356488 2.1568567 0.25067956 1.1760028 1.5701100 0.11930279 2.0942360 2.3984871 2.2416954 -0.29437338 -1.2225919 2.3200181 0.49348262 6.0812978 -1.0658318 1.1760028 0.25215270 1.4372601 0.74407957 1.0528007 -0.41317290 -0.29437338 4.0233181 4.8940872 0.49348262 -0.51575021 1.5529044 2.4768159 4.1675136 1.4158994 -1.8690284 1.0343287 0.88202420 -0.29437338 1.3636160 2.2516566 -0.79614678 2.0621240 1.5375430 3.7455969 2.8528466 0.11930279 -0.57243183 1.0190990 3.4227387 2.2561058 5.1299904 0.93750128 -2.0408372 2.0185696 1.5158352 3.7023195 5.3496407 0.11930279 6.9511038 3.4818849 4.5609275 0.94593682 2.4906653 3.3728128 6.6378893 1.9332302 5.1336975 1.1760028 2.7877661 0.11930279 0.64398997 2.1668827 2.0110703 3.3328334 2.3936841 5.6740244 2.8863049 3.0645608 3.8203401 3.5498908 5.1221600 4.8390729 2.9552532 4.4252381 3.0904792 4.3613065 2.2573525 3.1408923 3.9533601 2.9341803 5.9786141 4.5996856 3.8471505 3.5267826 3.9558755 6.4983134 5.1916948 3.0560243 6.5588156 2.9905146 4.9052523 3.8798591 4.6302465 6.6280794 9.1616401 2.2795194 4.8111573 2.9563304 7.0634868 3.9571811 1.9562179 4.9503854 2.5987463 3.6837292 6.5224709 5.3390599 6.7537034 2.1864868 4.5800020 4.8681375 5.7145000 4.7882263 4.8482474 2.6949515 1.4997720 0.48969599 2.2590483 2.1789281 5.5734498 1.1180544 5.4026843 2.7141702 2.5559008 2.6673722 1.7318618 2.6182080 3.4334596 4.3682614 3.1715735 5.0595013 4.4745084 5.9070954 8.0572498 11.148278 9.0134270 6.2604615 6.2250658 3.3775771 19.767320 1.3038104 7.5014569 9.2810993 9.6208297 9.8862824 15.240388 11.894131 6.4784469 11.671538 8.9397831 7.2367097 13.826954 11.851244 9.2394857 10.905786 8.8160227 4.9257178 5.8063208 4.4996431 4.3299163 5.2156396 8.1646789 12.074221 5.1118334 4.8499566 7.1143780 7.2442837 6.8547993 3.1287088 3.1787435 3.4772178 4.8026068 6.3784890 6.1484386 5.5354081 5.6014259 4.5705426 5.3155047 4.7806916 6.5985520 6.5536346 11.487971 6.0739158 8.6804293 5.9610708 6.3789308 3.7970890 5.2893782 2.2161804 4.3369492 6.6028068 5.6241679 6.1748245 6.7875021 8.3780353 9.4797108 10.168909 9.7955791 5.4634593 5.6189576 6.4962219 7.8536617 7.4752299 7.8364428 10.077866 10.533046 10.132701 11.099160 13.495437 10.641074 9.6637206 9.8229757 9.8939538 9.4285446 7.4453118 11.195073 14.134879 14.382758 14.508833 8.2550363 9.9184546 7.3107774 7.0882526 10.486966 11.471320 7.4889609 8.3708852 9.2313405 10.763512 14.471643 9.6633470 6.4862301 7.0540880 5.5956083 8.8627506 9.1369774 9.0156740 5.4608713 5.8929900 5.7996033 6.6690267 3.1542793 1.5967565 1.4429760 8.0229491 10.690450 7.8497622 2.7555002 5.3456178 5.6358794 2.9657123 2.4639648 2.9886466 -0.16308508 0.55600691 8.1451925 6.1855613 2.8096700 4.4919074 4.4961548 5.4633354 3.4273856 3.1571821 3.1527017 6.8221295 4.9195686 2.4743353 5.4300459 3.1979492 2.6458834 3.5270548 5.4878871 5.2213125 3.2992681 1.1760028 2.3310485 2.3992275 4.3525948 5.0190987 4.4702272 4.1958096 2.5064353 1.5311875 3.0928957 3.1879564 3.9429902 5.2244655 4.5058913 3.7789580 -3.8656188 -5.7710764 -2.9926304 3.3888707 4.6471844 0.036919820 2.6865993 5.3130409 1.3404330 2.2647674 2.6578877 0.11930279 11.328492 5.1084706 6.0001440 3.2538255 3.7273267 2.1383339 7.1650433 5.4222622 3.3824778 2.9123654 1.2230384 3.5855097 1.8479695 5.2518142 5.7600331 3.8035247 3.8801798 4.4140996 6.2278575 7.1991611 4.2562466 2.5082261 2.9008559 6.0894644 4.0505789 6.6390246 8.0766584 6.1956370 1.6865004 2.8950854 1.7806911 4.2990215 5.3652318 3.7251275 3.4784062 12.449803 5.0761142 6.6055968 1.7638395 1.8786967 5.5815500 4.5953569 10.891102 9.7925498 7.7742152 3.2741674 2.1689124 6.6864834 1.5096111 1.2226970 1.9589554 3.2550499 1.7272621 1.7316021 4.0177142 5.0432016 1.4177111 4.6703028 2.4420974 2.4415096 3.4806480 5.5042016 1.5985627 1.7139953 2.4983413 2.2402989 3.9106657 2.8917296 4.4964677 2.8701207 1.2879230 5.1885429 4.1956007 3.6501715 2.6519629 1.9299090 -0.11199490 0.22592368 4.0941777 1.6947040 6. Stable Filter Inflation Forecasts, with standard errors. Forecasts: y-hat_t = E( x_t | Y_t ) = E( y_(t+j) | Y_t ) (Annual percentage rates) month mean s.e. month mean s.e. month mean s.e. 53.11 -3.24 inf 57.03 3.01 0.86 60.07 0.85 0.86 53.12 -1.56 1.46 57.04 3.22 0.81 60.08 0.77 0.82 54.01 -0.09 1.41 57.05 3.08 0.77 60.09 0.79 0.77 54.02 -0.63 1.28 57.06 3.64 0.81 60.10 1.57 1.01 54.03 -1.01 1.08 57.07 3.93 0.85 60.11 1.70 1.03 54.04 -1.72 0.98 57.08 3.51 0.83 60.12 1.64 0.88 54.05 -0.68 1.27 57.09 3.01 0.86 61.01 1.26 0.82 54.06 -0.53 1.23 57.10 2.48 0.92 61.02 0.89 0.81 54.07 -0.48 1.00 57.11 3.06 0.91 61.03 0.66 0.81 54.08 -0.64 0.88 57.12 2.76 0.90 61.04 0.44 0.79 54.09 -1.30 0.87 58.01 3.65 1.02 61.05 0.29 0.77 54.10 -1.57 0.88 58.02 3.13 1.03 61.06 0.26 0.75 54.11 -0.73 0.98 58.03 4.15 1.17 61.07 0.99 0.98 54.12 -0.87 0.98 58.04 3.77 1.12 61.08 0.68 0.97 55.01 -0.60 0.87 58.05 2.66 1.13 61.09 1.03 0.90 55.02 -0.60 0.82 58.06 2.10 1.12 61.10 0.84 0.84 55.03 -0.52 0.77 58.07 1.83 1.02 61.11 0.92 0.79 55.04 -0.50 0.74 58.08 1.08 0.97 61.12 1.06 0.76 55.05 -0.46 0.72 58.09 0.72 0.95 62.01 0.87 0.74 55.06 -0.61 0.71 58.10 0.61 0.88 62.02 1.10 0.74 55.07 0.08 0.95 58.11 1.08 0.83 62.03 1.34 0.75 55.08 -0.33 0.95 58.12 0.90 0.82 62.04 1.51 0.75 55.09 0.54 1.07 59.01 1.03 0.78 62.05 1.16 0.75 55.10 0.46 1.03 59.02 0.45 0.82 62.06 0.75 0.80 55.11 1.10 0.95 59.03 0.33 0.84 62.07 1.03 0.80 55.12 0.53 0.92 59.04 0.48 0.79 62.08 0.92 0.78 56.01 0.13 0.91 59.05 0.61 0.76 62.09 1.72 1.07 56.02 -0.02 0.86 59.06 1.27 0.86 62.10 1.24 1.03 56.03 0.27 0.81 59.07 1.45 0.90 62.11 1.22 0.96 56.04 0.44 0.79 59.08 0.91 0.85 62.12 0.96 0.86 56.05 1.25 1.09 59.09 1.43 0.88 63.01 1.07 0.81 56.06 2.16 1.44 59.10 1.99 0.94 63.02 1.00 0.77 56.07 4.05 1.99 59.11 1.81 0.90 63.03 1.01 0.74 56.08 2.49 1.60 59.12 1.75 0.83 63.04 0.73 0.73 56.09 1.99 1.35 60.01 1.11 0.84 63.05 0.55 0.74 56.10 3.86 1.56 60.02 1.05 0.85 63.06 1.15 0.82 56.11 3.12 1.44 60.03 0.75 0.81 63.07 1.74 0.99 56.12 3.61 1.20 60.04 1.55 1.14 63.08 1.48 0.94 57.01 2.93 1.04 60.05 1.21 1.07 63.09 0.99 0.87 57.02 3.15 0.95 60.06 1.28 0.94 63.10 1.11 0.84 month mean s.e. month mean s.e. month mean s.e. 63.11 1.42 0.80 67.03 2.14 0.85 70.07 4.30 0.86 63.12 1.96 0.84 67.04 2.12 0.79 70.08 3.91 0.83 64.01 1.85 0.84 67.05 2.38 0.76 70.09 3.87 0.80 64.02 1.09 0.91 67.06 2.38 0.75 70.10 4.42 0.81 64.03 1.09 0.92 67.07 2.99 0.82 70.11 4.58 0.83 64.04 1.04 0.83 67.08 2.96 0.84 70.12 5.05 0.83 64.05 0.74 0.79 67.09 2.98 0.78 71.01 4.52 0.85 64.06 0.87 0.77 67.10 3.16 0.75 71.02 4.53 0.85 64.07 1.15 0.76 67.11 3.23 0.74 71.03 4.61 0.79 64.08 0.79 0.77 67.12 3.60 0.75 71.04 4.85 0.76 64.09 1.02 0.78 68.01 3.81 0.77 71.05 4.83 0.75 64.10 1.12 0.76 68.02 3.64 0.75 71.06 4.84 0.72 64.11 1.63 0.79 68.03 3.79 0.74 71.07 4.43 0.74 64.12 1.84 0.82 68.04 3.66 0.73 71.08 3.95 0.83 65.01 1.48 0.79 68.05 3.79 0.72 71.09 3.34 0.97 65.02 1.08 0.81 68.06 3.51 0.72 71.10 3.15 0.97 65.03 1.08 0.80 68.07 3.44 0.73 71.11 2.91 0.89 65.04 1.57 0.79 68.08 3.55 0.72 71.12 3.52 0.85 65.05 1.69 0.80 68.09 3.43 0.71 72.01 3.07 0.88 65.06 2.38 0.88 68.10 3.88 0.75 72.02 3.54 0.88 65.07 2.12 0.89 68.11 3.99 0.78 72.03 3.37 0.85 65.08 1.27 1.00 68.12 3.96 0.75 72.04 3.18 0.80 65.09 1.42 0.98 69.01 3.87 0.72 72.05 3.07 0.77 65.10 1.45 0.87 69.02 3.88 0.71 72.06 2.80 0.76 65.11 1.99 0.83 69.03 4.35 0.75 72.07 2.77 0.75 65.12 2.62 0.91 69.04 4.49 0.79 72.08 2.90 0.73 66.01 2.15 0.92 69.05 4.19 0.76 72.09 3.18 0.73 66.02 3.04 1.08 69.06 4.63 0.79 72.10 3.17 0.73 66.03 3.10 1.07 69.07 4.33 0.80 72.11 3.54 0.74 66.04 3.54 0.94 69.08 4.45 0.78 72.12 3.70 0.76 66.05 2.92 0.90 69.09 4.33 0.75 73.01 4.13 0.79 66.06 2.83 0.88 69.10 4.39 0.73 73.02 4.81 0.95 66.07 2.97 0.81 69.11 4.81 0.75 73.03 5.89 1.48 66.08 3.69 0.89 69.12 5.50 0.96 73.04 6.55 1.56 66.09 3.38 0.91 70.01 4.96 0.97 73.05 6.35 1.23 66.10 3.78 0.87 70.02 4.93 0.93 73.06 6.27 0.99 66.11 3.23 0.87 70.03 4.42 0.87 73.07 5.49 0.91 66.12 3.15 0.86 70.04 4.96 0.87 73.08 6.37 3.03 67.01 2.46 0.88 70.05 4.76 0.86 73.09 5.39 1.69 67.02 2.12 0.91 70.06 4.14 0.87 73.10 5.99 1.39 month mean s.e. month mean s.e. month mean s.e. 73.11 7.17 1.22 77.03 6.3 1.09 80.07 9.22 1.03 73.12 7.84 1.13 77.04 7.01 1.02 80.08 9.53 0.96 74.01 8.41 1.04 77.05 6.74 0.93 80.09 10.03 0.89 74.02 9.57 1.55 77.06 6.64 0.84 80.10 9.48 0.89 74.03 10.00 1.52 77.07 6.01 0.84 80.11 9.26 0.88 74.04 8.74 1.19 77.08 5.88 0.85 80.12 9.25 0.82 74.05 9.49 1.16 77.09 5.10 0.94 81.01 9.59 0.78 74.06 9.33 1.04 77.10 4.97 0.95 81.02 10.37 1.02 74.07 8.71 0.93 77.11 5.39 0.86 81.03 10.22 1.01 74.08 9.67 1.13 77.12 5.45 0.82 81.04 9.27 1.00 74.09 10.07 1.16 78.01 5.61 0.77 81.05 8.83 1.02 74.10 9.81 0.99 78.02 5.85 0.76 81.06 8.04 1.05 74.11 10.11 0.89 78.03 6.33 0.80 81.07 8.24 0.98 74.12 9.80 0.84 78.04 6.87 0.90 81.08 8.50 0.87 75.01 8.94 1.05 78.05 7.49 1.02 81.09 8.62 0.82 75.02 8.39 1.16 78.06 7.98 1.05 81.10 7.96 0.85 75.03 7.37 1.30 78.07 7.36 0.95 81.11 7.60 0.90 75.04 6.54 1.32 78.08 6.97 0.91 81.12 7.22 0.89 75.05 6.15 1.19 78.09 6.86 0.86 82.01 7.10 0.85 75.06 6.82 1.00 78.10 7.10 0.80 82.02 6.27 0.97 75.07 7.88 1.17 78.11 7.18 0.77 82.03 5.42 1.19 75.08 7.34 1.15 78.12 7.31 0.75 82.04 4.55 1.34 75.09 6.67 1.08 79.01 7.83 0.79 82.05 5.46 1.16 75.10 6.80 0.98 79.02 8.29 0.88 82.06 6.61 1.28 75.11 6.92 0.87 79.03 8.64 0.90 82.07 6.86 1.22 75.12 6.91 0.81 79.04 9.19 0.93 82.08 5.59 1.15 76.01 6.16 0.89 79.05 10.08 1.10 82.09 5.53 1.09 76.02 5.65 0.99 79.06 10.17 1.07 82.10 5.57 0.93 76.03 5.19 1.00 79.07 10.00 0.91 82.11 4.90 0.89 76.04 5.12 0.92 79.08 9.95 0.83 82.12 4.42 0.91 76.05 5.45 0.83 79.09 9.93 0.78 83.01 4.12 0.89 76.06 5.60 0.80 79.10 9.82 0.75 83.02 3.22 1.04 76.07 5.59 0.76 79.11 9.37 0.77 83.03 2.71 1.10 76.08 5.59 0.73 79.12 9.68 0.79 83.04 3.82 1.21 76.09 5.39 0.72 80.01 10.44 0.99 83.05 4.27 1.21 76.10 5.38 0.72 80.02 11.14 1.19 83.06 3.82 1.04 76.11 5.27 0.71 80.03 11.94 1.30 83.07 4.01 0.92 76.12 5.51 0.71 80.04 10.97 1.12 83.08 4.13 0.84 77.01 5.69 0.73 80.05 10.72 1.04 83.09 4.44 0.80 77.02 6.43 1.18 80.06 9.79 1.02 83.10 4.23 0.78 month mean s.e. month mean s.e. month mean s.e. 83.11 4.01 0.77 87.03 2.92 1.65 90.07 4.33 0.87 83.12 3.84 0.76 87.04 3.92 1.42 90.08 5.19 1.41 84.01 4.40 0.80 87.05 3.63 1.11 90.09 6.12 1.74 84.02 4.48 0.82 87.06 3.64 0.93 90.10 6.50 1.51 84.03 4.04 0.79 87.07 3.24 0.85 90.11 5.29 1.10 84.04 4.30 0.80 87.08 4.01 0.94 90.12 4.56 1.05 84.05 4.08 0.78 87.09 4.25 0.97 91.01 5.06 1.01 84.06 3.79 0.77 87.10 4.02 0.87 91.02 4.22 1.01 84.07 3.74 0.76 87.11 3.76 0.82 91.03 3.60 1.05 84.08 4.10 0.75 87.12 3.23 0.83 91.04 3.22 1.01 84.09 4.30 0.76 88.01 3.30 0.83 91.05 3.24 0.91 84.10 4.10 0.75 88.02 2.98 0.79 91.06 2.86 0.85 84.11 3.56 0.80 88.03 3.42 0.80 91.07 2.62 0.82 84.12 3.36 0.84 88.04 3.85 0.84 91.08 2.92 0.79 85.01 3.16 0.81 88.05 3.83 0.83 91.09 3.34 0.80 85.02 3.42 0.77 88.06 3.84 0.77 91.10 2.98 0.81 85.03 3.73 0.77 88.07 3.96 0.74 91.11 3.31 0.81 85.04 3.87 0.77 88.08 4.39 0.77 91.12 3.13 0.79 85.05 3.93 0.75 88.09 4.87 0.85 92.01 2.99 0.77 85.06 3.65 0.73 88.10 4.75 0.8004 92.02 3.09 0.74 85.07 3.27 0.77 88.11 4.25 0.82 92.03 3.55 0.77 85.08 3.25 0.78 88.12 4.00 0.82 92.04 3.21 0.80 85.09 3.24 0.74 89.01 4.43 0.81 92.05 2.93 0.80 85.10 3.38 0.72 89.02 4.35 0.80 92.06 2.85 0.78 85.11 3.72 0.74 89.03 4.84 0.80 92.07 2.73 0.75 85.12 3.85 0.75 89.04 5.41 0.89 92.08 2.96 0.74 86.01 3.83 0.73 89.05 5.55 0.90 92.09 2.95 0.73 86.02 3.21 1.59 89.06 4.71 0.94 92.10 3.25 0.73 86.03 0.36 3.35 89.07 4.39 0.97 92.11 3.18 0.73 86.04 -1.34 3.03 89.08 3.76 0.97 92.12 2.82 0.74 86.05 2.10 1.74 89.09 3.90 0.91 93.01 3.22 0.78 86.06 2.94 1.26 89.10 4.27 0.84 93.02 3.39 0.80 86.07 2.06 1.19 89.11 4.15 0.80 93.03 3.44 0.77 86.08 2.26 1.05 89.12 4.01 0.77 93.04 3.27 0.74 86.09 3.13 0.97 90.01 4.66 1.75 93.05 3.02 0.74 86.10 2.75 0.96 90.02 4.49 1.34 93.06 2.47 0.82 86.11 2.63 0.89 90.03 5.15 1.06 93.07 2.09 0.89 86.12 2.64 0.82 90.04 4.33 0.99 93.08 2.51 0.85 87.01 2.09 0.82 90.05 3.82 1.00 93.09 2.35 0.83 87.02 2.81 1.90 90.06 4.24 0.94