CREF TIPS Clobber Stocks Yet Again in 2002

A subpage of The U.S. Real Term Structure
by J. Huston McCulloch
Department of Economics, Ohio State University

In what has come to be a boring regularity, the CREF Inflation-Linked Bond Variable Annuity Account has outperformed all of the TIAA-CREF equity-based variable annuity accounts during calendar 2002, as it did during calendar 2001 and 2000, as shown in the three tables below. TIPS also outdid the CREF Bond Market Account, based on nominal bonds, in 2002 as in 2000. In 2001, nominals did do slightly better than TIPS, but only by a scant 26 basis points.

Returns for TIAA-CREF Variable Annuity Accounts,
12/31/01 - 12/31/02
CREF Account Nominal Return Nominal Return Real Return
(ann. comp.) (cont. comp.) (cont. comp.)
Inflation-Linked Bond 16.32% 15.12% 12.77%
Stock -20.73% -23.23% -25.58%
Global Equities -21.72% -24.49% -26.84%
Equity Index -21.76% -24.54% -26.89%
Growth Stocks -30.06% -35.75% -38.10%
Social Choice -9.17% -9.62% -11.97%
Bond Market 10.08% 9.60% 7.25%
Money Market 1.50% 1.49% -0.86%
TIAA Real Estate 3.41% 3.35% 1.00%
Real returns are net of 2.35% Dec/Dec continuously compounded inflation.

Returns for TIAA-CREF Variable Annuity Accounts,
12/31/00 - 12/31/01
CREF Account Nominal Return Nominal Return Real Return
(ann. comp.) (cont. comp.) (cont. comp.)
Inflation-Linked Bond 7.67% 7.39% 5.85%
Stock -13.89% -14.95% -16.49%
Global Equities -19.52% -21.72% -23.26%
Equity Index -11.73% -12.48% -14.02%
Growth Stocks -22.91% -26.02% -27.56%
Social Choice -4.77% -4.89% -6.43%
Bond Market 7.93% 7.63% 6.09%
Money Market 4.04% 3.96% 2.42%
TIAA Real Estate 6.29% 6.10% 4.56%
Real returns are net of 1.54% Dec/Dec continuously compounded inflation.

Returns for TIAA-CREF Variable Annuity Accounts,
12/31/99 - 12/31/00
CREF Account Nominal Return Nominal Return Real Return
(ann. comp.) (cont. comp.) (cont. comp.)
Inflation-Linked Bond 12.76% 12.01% 8.68%
Stock -8.43% -8.81% -12.14%
Global Equities -16.19% -17.66% -20.99%
Equity Index -7.59% -7.89% -11.22%
Growth Stocks -20.56% -23.02% -26.35%
Social Choice 0.34% 0.34% -2.99%
Bond Market 11.75% 11.11% 7.78%
Money Market 6.36% 6.17% 2.84%
TIAA Real Estate 10.66% 10.13% 6.80%
Real returns are net of 3.33% Dec/Dec continuously compounded inflation.

The Inflation-Linked Bond Account doubled again in size during 2002, from $1.2 billion to $2.6 billion. It held fewer than $0.5 billion in assets at the end of 2000.

Unlike the new TIAA-CREF Inflation-Linked Bond Mutual Fund (see above, which is offered to the general public, the CREF Inflation-Linked Bond Variable Annuity Account is available only to TIAA-CREF members. The CREF indexed bond account is now reporting management expenses of 39 basis points. This seems rather high, given that the fund doesn't have much to choose from, especially in comparison to the mutual fund's expenses of 30 basis points and Vanguard's expenses of only 22 basis points.

As of June 30, 2000, the account was holding the 7 US Treasury inflation-linked securities roughly in proportion to their outstanding volume. The prospectus allows the fund also to invest in corporate indexed bonds and securities, as well as foreign inflation-linked bonds, though it has not been doing so.

TIAA-CREF members may speak to a Counselor concerning how to move funds between Accounts at 1-(800)-842-2776.

For small percentage returns, it makes little difference whether we compound them annually or continuously. For large percentage returns, however, the difference becomes quite noticeable. One advantage of continuously over annually compounded returns is that while the former are additive over time, the latter are not. Thus, if a 22.91% annually compounded nominal loss, such as that sustained by the TIAA Growth Stock account during 2001, is followed by an "equal but opposite" 22.91% annually compounded nominal gain in 2002 , the investor would actually be left with only 94.75 cents on the dollar, before inflation. It would in fact take a 29.72% annually compounded nominal gain in 2002 to make up for the "22.91%" nominal loss of 2001. In terms of continuously compounded returns, however, a 26.02% nominal gain in 2002 would exactly make up for the 26.02% nominal loss in 2001, before inflation. For this reason, TIAA-CREF's reported annually compounded rates of return are converted here to continuous compounding before adjusting for inflation.